*Update 10/31: The fourth and final 2015 issue of Uguisu Value published for subscribers’ review over the weekend ahead of the market open in Tokyo (on Monday, November 2nd). See most recent update below or click the Uguisu Value Newsletter link here or in the left-menu area for additional details.
Previously on 10/7 and 10/15:
Many friends, family members and colleagues agree that 2015 has been flying by and somehow mid October is already just around the corner. For the Uguisu Value newsletter, that means the fourth and final issue of the year will be published soon (current target publish date of month’s end). I launched Uguisu Value in January as a means of offering one deep conviction, heavy portfolio concentration write-up for value investors based around the world seeking smaller-cap Japan equity ideas that feature asymmetric reward v. risk: upside of at least 2x and minimal downside due to solid margins of safety and historical/current profitability.
It has been somewhat of a roller coaster ride with interim upside of 30%+ for two of my best ideas. Presently (updated 10/15), however, share prices of all three are down since publishing: by 5% or less in two cases and about 13% in another. Having thoroughly researched these companies, it is now, essentially, a matter of time arbitrage. Founding subscribers as well as subscribers from Q2 and Q3 have been excellent, demonstrating the indispensable value investor virtue of patience and in some cases as I’m aware, taking advantage of Mr. Market.
I am fully invested in my best ideas and in some cases have sizable allocations. My Japan portfolio typically has less than six positions. If I were managing external permanent (or patient) capital or a private equity investment fund, all three best ideas to-date are ideal acquisition candidates of which I would love to own much larger stakes or outright.
- For my maiden issue (request a sample via email: contact [@] steventowns.com), I maintain my valuation upside of a baseline 200% correspondingly with a solid margin of safety. This company is the epitome of deep value (rich balance sheet assets) opportunities in Japan. Having written-up two higher-ROE companies subsequently, I look forward to sharing another company whose balance sheet assets alone make it investment worthy, not to mention also being attractive with regards to profitability.
- My Q2 best idea was among those with 30%+ interim gains, but the company’s stock price has undergone a sharp reversal that is excessive considering the company’s earning power (and history of profitability) and strong balance sheet. I maintain my original 100% upside target, but full value realization may naturally take longer due to the lower valuation from which it must increase. I will be watching the company’s execution in its core business segments and management’s capital allocation decisions (i.e. will there be further share repurchases?) in the coming months and next year.
- My Q3 best idea is a micro-cap that has made significant investments and is poised for top and bottom-line growth that I expect will drive its valuation higher conservatively by 2x. Execution risk is low (e.g. new warehouse construction is complete; deliberately accumulated inventory is quickly ramping up for sale), while monthly sequential and year-over-year revenues have all been increasing. This is another case of time arbitrage. The valuation is extremely attractive and although it could temporarily decrease somewhat due to exogenous factors such as any China news of late and selling induced by broader market selling, the reward v. risk profile leans (heavily) asymmetrically in favor of the former.
I hope this update is helpful both to those who have been considering subscribing and newcomers to my website that learn of Uguisu Value. Given the ongoing availability of excellent valuations in Japan, I fully expect to continue featuring Japanese smaller-cap equity best ideas into 2016. One of my investing circles-of-competence is this very segment of smaller-cap and domestic/consumer-oriented Japanese companies that have a combination of attractive valuations with growth opportunities or other value-unlocking catalysts. Japan clearly lacks the equity culture found in the U.S., however, as much as efficient markets are found to be inefficient in New York (let alone Japan), the candlestick charting momentum proclivities not uncommon in Japan are also to the advantage of value investors. Furthermore, the seemingly innumerable self-proclaimed macro pundits and Japan experts continue to misunderstand Japan and again that is ultimately to value investors’ benefit.
Link for Uguisu Value additional information: http://steventowns.com/uguisu-value-newsletter/
Email for Uguisu Value maiden issue sample: firstname.lastname@example.org.