Recap: Debt, JGBs, Value Investing Simplicity, and Japanese Stocks


I’m going to see how posting a daily summary of my tweets goes. I’ve always felt that tweets are too ephemeral and despite the excellent information and leads that do get shared,  there’s far too much action/noise/distraction on Twitter. There is at least a “favorite” button, but the weak search function and inability to bookmark and sort, is something I hope Twitter gets right, soon. I’m starting these summaries for my own benefit — a quick recap of what I tweeted, retweeted, and favorited — and I’m fine if it remains for an audience of one and would of course be thrilled if others benefit. Highlights:

1. @TexasHedgeDebt culture: ~1/5 of don’t plan to pay off their joining the gov’t w/ $18T in debt

I didn’t tweet this or read the coverage, but I saw that Jeffrey Gundlach of DoubleLine said the 10-year could fall to 1%. I wouldn’t be surprised if the 10-year yields below 2% for some time. Look up Richard Koo and balance sheet recession. Look for a 10-year JGB chart. See my tweet below re. new 10-year JGB issue yields. And it’s not just the U.S. and Japan. I agree with Warren Buffett, who recently said it’s a no-brainer to get a mortgage. He’s obviously implying proper due diligence and selectivity.

2.  rpts new 10yr yield at 1yr8m low 0.39%. So much for CAPM, WACC. 新発10年債利回り、0.390%に低下 1年8カ月ぶり低水準に

0.39%… See my book, Investing in Japan.

3. @indievestments Pabrai: If I find myself reaching for Excel, it is a very strong sign to take a pass. The thesis ought to be painfully simple in your head.

Agreed. Reflexive. Though I wonder if it’s deliberately part of Mohnish’s checklist.

4. I tweeted: I mostly focus on s-caps but read 92 of N225 co’s <5% ROE for 5yrs; ditto 60 of ROE-focused JPX400 (wtf). Some overcap’d but …

Could write another book chapter on this topic. Beyond saying I’m sanguine about Japan and especially like the small/mid-cap universe, I will refrain from commenting more for now.

5. I tweeted: Hmm owns 21.55% stake (just sold 1.15% pos) in Japan’s Carview (TSE Mothers: 2155). This is a Yahoo! controlled co.

It’s not uncommon to find very interesting holdings in Japanese companies by Western funds, corporations, etc. Yahoo! owned a 52% stake in this leading Japanese car/auto info website as of year-end 2013. A quick glance and it doesn’t look like very interesting from either a growth or value perspective. That said, at its 52-week low, its cash would have approached its market cap and it doesn’t carry long-term debt.

6.  Our Visionary Board report has been translated into Japanese:

I put this on my reading list.

7. And from Tuesday (big selloff in Tokyo among other markets) I want to share my tweets that are appropriate again today (and the first one, forever).

Inflation, deflat., fx vol, unseas’ble temps. Hard to argue against being highly selective & focused on except’l franchises.


Flight to safety buy yen & sell Japan stocks is contradictory in some ways. But I get it. A lot of momo; fx & macro hf fanboys $$


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