Recap: Debt, JGBs, Value Investing Simplicity, and Japanese Stocks

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I’m going to see how posting a daily summary of my tweets goes. I’ve always felt that tweets are too ephemeral and despite the excellent information and leads that do get shared,  there’s far too much action/noise/distraction on Twitter. There is at least a “favorite” button, but the weak search function and inability to bookmark and sort, is something I hope Twitter gets right, soon. I’m starting these summaries for my own benefit — a quick recap of what I tweeted, retweeted, and favorited — and I’m fine if it remains for an audience of one and would of course be thrilled if others benefit. Highlights:

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Berkshire Beyond Buffett Notes

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The rent is too damn high and the weather is too damn cold. Can I interest you in an all-weather portfolio? All kidding aside, if not already in your possession, get Larry Cunningham’s Berkshire Beyond Buffett: The Enduring Value of Values and enjoy the latest of Larry’s deep dives into Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B). To keep these posts short I’ll share some interesting Berkshire Beyond Buffett notes every few chapters or so.  Continue reading

ビーピー・カストロール株を利益確定

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先程のツイート

アベノミクス開始約一ヶ月前ビーピー・カストロール()の株を買い始めた。日本にしかない全体市場と銘柄の割安度。しかも黒字でROEも割高の会社は珍しくない。更にビーピー・カも高配当だった。いよいよ5015の人気・株価が行き過ぎて完全に利益確定した。 

利益確定:

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Warren Buffett: 85% Fisher, 15% Graham

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In John Train’s The Midas Touch (Amazon; recent post), published in 1987, he describes Warren Buffett as 85% influenced by Benjamin Graham and 15% by Philip Fisher. After re-reading Fisher’s Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits and typing up 15+ pages of notes to substitute for a future re-read, I am convinced that Buffett is much closer to 85%-Fisher and 15%-Graham, and he was arguably already leaning more Fisher-like than Graham when Train began writing about him. Put Common Stocks on your reading list and consider a re-read if it’s already on your shelf. Continue reading

Business Adventures notes

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Like many others, I became aware of John Brooks’ Business Adventures after the recent WSJ essay by Bill Gates wherein Gates said the book was his favorite of the business genre and that it was Warren Buffett’s recommendation to him in 1991 when he asked Buffett for his best business read (the story goes that Buffett mailed Gates his personal copy and Gates has kept it to this day). I’m in the middle of chapter three (about the U.S. federal income tax) but wanted to share a few notes from the first chapter, “The Fluctuation: The Little Crash in ’62” [chapter two is a 50-page entry about the failed Ford Edsel, a rather quick, enjoyable and informative read]. Continue reading

Chasing yield, it’s not just Japan anymore

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CNBC on Tuesday, July 8, 2014: “Watch out for asset bubbles developing: Sternlicht.” I read this with some interest considering Starwood Capital’s AUM ($36B) and focus on real estate. “[…]  watch out for tail risk,” warned Barry Sternlicht, company chairman and CEO, who also said there is complacency risk among investors because there is such a dearth of yield.

Since there’s no yield … in corporates or governments — everything whether it’s farmland, timber — everything is yield proxies.

“Yield proxy” is an interesting term. I know all about “chasing yield”  having watched and invested in Japan for so long (remember the yen carry trade) and seen the shitty products that banks sell their customers (10yr JGB yield: 0.53%, see Bloomberg bond tables). What really caught my eye in this CNBC piece (originally in video) is this admission by Sternlicht: Continue reading

What to like about investing in Japan

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In a recent article by IBD about the attractiveness of foreign stocks, Dennis Stattman (a manager of the $60 billion BlackRock Global Allocation — ticker: MDLOX), commented that there is a lot to like in Japan. Dennis cited upward earnings revisions; corporate managers starting shareholder-friendly policies; and attractive valuations. He believes Japan is in the very early stages of a multi-year bull market. Continue reading

When to sell a stock?

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For many investors, dyed-in-the-wool value investors especially, buying a stock is not as simple as inputting a buy order — as in value investors need to have done their research and fundamental analysis, the company ought to have for instance some sort of moat (and be a compounder whose shares are priced reasonably if not cheaply) or be trading at a discount to x variable(s) [e.g. margin of safety via current or tangible assets; resource conversion opportunity], and one must have the capital available to establish a position. Further, how much stock does one buy at first; how much of an order will get filled for a smaller cap company? Although, once a position is established and fully-invested, it ought to be more of an auto-pilot mode in the sense of turn off the “quote machine” and let the company work for you. Continue reading

Nomura’s Individual Japanese Investor Survey (June 2014)

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Nomura’s (NYSE: NMR) (TYO: 8604) monthly “Individual Investor Survey” was released yesterday. (Here’s my walk-through for May). Japanese investors are slightly more bullish, while they remain concerned about international affairs with a particular interest in forex developments, naturally. Their top sector focus (most appealing/unappealing) was unchanged: they like capital goods and autos, somewhat surprisingly in my opinion; bearish on transportation and utilities, unsurprisingly. Japanese investors seem to always have a place in their heart for higher yielding currencies, hence their fondness for the Australian dollar, though they also like the yen, which is interesting because 65% of respondents see a weaker yen on the horizon. So what investment do Japanese investors like most?  Continue reading

Value investing in Sanrio vs the Hello Kitty premium

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Sanrio (TYO: 8136) (OTC: SNROF) shares have taken a beating the past several months and really got hammered last week — “blame” Goldman Sachs for the latter, as it appears that its post-earnings report casting undue pessimism and uncertainty on Sanrio’s business model fueled the selloff and compelled Morgan Stanley-MUFG Securities to publish a copycat note. (Sanrio’s statement emphasizing profit-focus and no plans to abandon lucrative licensing business.) Attracted to Sanrio’s high ROE, a weakening yen, and “Cool Japan” marketing in overseas markets that only solidifies the popularity and brand recognition of flagship character, Hello Kitty, I had the fortunate timing of building a position in Sanrio’s ordinary shares in Q4’12 ahead of a sizable run up in 2013. Following are some lessons learned from that profitable investment and the intraday 23% drop Sanrio’s shares suffered last Thursday.

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