Browsing Posts published in October, 2009

More often than not, it is overseas factors that have the largest influence on trading in Japan. However, from time to time there is enough commotion domestically that also warrants the attention of investors. Unfortunately, the cacophony coming out of the government these days is more concerning than usual (e.g. Japan Post management/reform, debt moratorium, JAL, etc). But let’s not forget earnings season is here.

Following is a market summary of last week’s action courtesy of the Tokyo Stock Exchange:

Despite the decline in the American exchanges reflecting weak corporate financial statements, the market continued with slight gains from the previous week backed by the strong tone of the Asian stock market. Further into the week, rising prices of oil and other commodities in the commodities market led to buying centered around resource stocks as the market strenghtened. Heading into the weekend, while there were positives with the yen falling to the 91 yen-per-dollar level, easing concerns over deterioration in corporate export estimates, many uncertainties such as the reconstruction of JAL and the direction on the moratorium remained. In addition, a wait-and-see sentiment grew amongst investors as they chose to wait for the announcement of July-September period financial statements by domestic corporations. As a result, the market struggled to make any headway.

This brief post was inspired by a Bloomberg story on Asian currency strength — a good read, by the way. My thoughts: an even stronger Korean won would bring some relief to Japanese exporters. However, it’s not clear just how much (for instance, consider the volume of autos sold by JP vs SK) with such subdued demand (sans government gimmicks for autos). At this point, the currency story is driven by the depreciating dollar.

Global central bank rates (Brazil 8.75%, South Africa 7.0%, Mexico 4.5%, Australia 3.25%, New Zealand 2.5%, ECB 1.0%, UK 0.5%, USA 0.25%, Canada 0.25%, Switzerland 0.25%, Japan 0.11%) as of October 16, 2009. See chart image below. [Source: Bloomberg; Central Bank web sites]

Global Central Bank Rates - October 16, 2009

Below is an extract of the latest data from the U.S. Treasury concerning foreign holders of U.S. Treasuries (year-to-date through the end of August). At least for now, the fear of foreigners dumping Treasuries can be allayed, although it is clear there is some month-month volatility from a key buyer (see the figures for Mainland China). Also, notice how the UK and Hong Kong have significantly stepped up purchases YTD. When I last published an extract of the data in January 2008, Japan was the largest holder at $586.9B, followed by Mainland China at $492.6B, and the UK at $160B.

Click table image to expand size.

Top Foreign Holders of U.S. Treasuries

For those in the area, below is a list of upcoming talks hosted by Japan Society New York. Click the respective link for additional information and for registration.

Oct. 20   Financial Reporting Reliability & Transparency: Activities of FASB & the ASBJ during the Financial Crisis

Oct. 27   Boeing & Japan: A Strategic Partnership for 21st-Century Aerospace Leadership

Oct. 28   How Foreign Companies are Remaking the American Dream

Nov. 3   Wanted: A New Engine for Global Economic Recovery