Another mostly uneventful day. Thank the laggard bank stocks and other non-bank financial stocks that were bought ahead of the new fiscal starting on Monday, for supporting the benchmark indices today. The Nikkei 225 gained 23.71 points (0.14%) to 17,287.65, or still about 1,000 points off its late Feb. multi-year high — just before the global stock sell-off began.

This Q4 will be remembered for the stock sell-off, blamed largely on China, and for the yen carry trade, which became an annoyingly hot topic for the media and wannabe pundits. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again, but I think the yen carry trade lives on. There will be volatility, but in the bigger picture, it is just too good of a deal to have disappear overnight.

Monday is a big day as the Bank of Japan releases its tankan. I don’t think there will be any surprises. A little to the downside of expectations and stocks may not sell-off too much. A little to the upside of expectations and there may be a slight rally, considering the slow trading into the fiscal year end. Obviously, a stronger reading does more to assuage concerns over the continued economic expansion and market sentiment.

We have earnings to look forward to, which means we’ll also get the next fiscal year forecasts. It is widely believed forecasts will be conservative, as always, given two factors: (1) the possibility of a stronger yen, which inevitably results in selling of exporter-stocks, and (2) implications of a slowdown in the U.S. economy, particularly related to weakness in housing.

A Yahoo! Finance Japan market summary notes there has been a pattern of selling futures (N225) around May, over the past several years. I have not looked specifically at such data, but I can say from memory that most rallies have started and picked up speed later in the year. That said, I think it is safe to expect limited upside, especially for indices, over the next couple of months. During this period, it will be a stock pickers market. Any gains will surely be met by swift profit-taking.

Advancers outnumbered decliners today: 1045 x 548.